Chammath Breaks Down the Current IPO Market: ARM, Instacart, etc

Entrepreneur, author, and investor in internet technology firms

David Sacks

Avi Friedberg

Entrepreneur, businessman, and angel investor. Founder of The Climate Corporation

David Friedberg

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

E146: Did the Fed break the VC model? Plus IPOs, M&A, revaluing unicorns & more

- Avi Friedberg suggests that the IPO market would be better served if banks were forced to be locked or if allocations were forced to be locked for a longer period of time, such as six or seven years.
- David Friedberg points out that the pricing of a direct listing can lead to price volatility and may not serve anyone better. He suggests that companies should float at least 15 to 20% and do a better job of allocation.
- Avi Friedberg agrees that the focus should be on the business fundamentals rather than the stock price, but acknowledges that many people get caught up in the price and create distractions.
- The conversation shifts to discussing the success of Instacart and the returns for investors. David Friedberg mentions that the fund he is in has already been paid back many times over and expects a multiple of 100-200x on his investment.
- They also discuss the dilution and inefficiency of companies in the late-stage investment environment, and how it may have been bad for both late-stage and early-stage investors.
- Avi Friedberg shares a visualization that compares the returns of investing in Instacart versus investing in the S&P 500, highlighting the concept of alpha and the decision to invest in a specific company versus the market.
- They conclude that the current market conditions and alternative investment options may impact the appetite of limited partners to invest in venture capital.

Does the European Project Work? Collapse of the EU

Media entrepreneur, financial analyst, and podcast host

Demetri Kofinas

Michael Nicoletos

Hidden Forces

Dollar Doomerism & Why Things Are Better Than You Think | Michael Nicoletos

- The European project faces challenges due to cultural and language barriers, lack of fiscal integration, and potential disputes over fiscal policies.
- There may be a point where countries in Europe question their membership in the Eurozone, particularly Italy, due to economic differences and potential conflicts of interest.
- Inflation is expected to remain higher than pre-crisis levels, driven by pro-labor policies, structural factors, and the need to reduce debt-to-GDP ratios.
- The impact of monetary and fiscal policies on inflation in 2020 and 2021 was limited, as supply shocks played a significant role. The overflow of unproductive money contributed to inflation, while productive investments can stimulate demand and create jobs.

Musk's Superpower: Question, Fire, Hire  - Walter Issacson

Host of the podcast show 'Lex Fridman Podcast'

Lex Fridman

Author of biographies on Elon Musk, Steve Jobs, Einstein, Benjamin Franklin, Leonardo da Vinci, and many others

Walter Isaacson

Lex Fridman Podcast

#395 – Walter Isaacson: Elon Musk, Steve Jobs, Einstein, Da Vinci & Ben Franklin

- Elon Musk fired 85% of employees in three rounds, causing concern among his team.
- Musk has an algorithm that involves questioning every requirement and deleting unnecessary parts.
- He may have overdone it by 20% but is now trying to hire more people.
- Hiring and managing great teams are crucial to Musk's and Steve Jobs' success.
- Musk has a talent for finding the right people and promoting them.
- Trustworthiness, excellence, and drive are important qualities in Musk's hires.
- Musk's time management involves focusing intensely on one task at a time and switching between different projects throughout the day.

Chris Christie & Sacks: Heated Debate on Ukraine

Entrepreneur, VC, engineer, and philanthropist. Founder and CEO of Social Capital

Chamath Palihapitiya

Entrepreneur, angel investor, author, and podcaster. Founder and CEO of Inside.com and Launch

Jason Calacanis

Former NJ Governor and Republican Presidential Candidate

Chris Christie

E145: Presidential Candidate Chris Christie in conversation with the Besties

- Chris Christie supports Ukraine and believes Putin is responsible for the invasion
- Chamath Palihapitiya also holds Putin responsible but believes US inaction contributed to the situation
- Chamath does not believe Ukraine should be admitted to NATO until they win the war
- Chris Christie thinks Ukraine's admission to NATO is almost inevitable now
- Chamath believes it was a mistake to express intentions to bring Ukraine into NATO without a clear plan
- Chris Christie would have been more aggressive in providing military hardware to Ukraine
- Jason Calacanis questions the effectiveness of US support and the lack of ammunition
- Chris Christie agrees that the Pentagon needs to be more efficient and effective but does not support cutting the defense budget
- Chamath suggests reallocating funds based on priorities and implementing zero-based budgeting principles

Besties with Chris Christie: Campaign, Trump's Criminal Charges, Bridge-gate

- Jason Calacanis would not send troops into Mexico to take out the cartels, but would use National Guard at the border to work with Customs and Border Patrol to stop the fentanyl cartels from entering the US.
- He would use the intelligence community to target and deal with the cartels.
- He believes in dealing with the fentanyl crisis diplomatically with Mexico, addressing the importation of precursor chemicals from China.
- He would instruct the attorney general to take over the prosecution of violent and drug crimes in cities with major drug problems if the state prosecutors are unwilling to act.
- He believes that the federal government should only intervene if the discord in cities like San Francisco, Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York becomes a threat to the entire country.
- Jason Calacanis supports criminal justice reform and cites New Jersey's successful bipartisan reform efforts, including release on recognizance for non-violent crimes and considering dangerousness to the community in granting bail.
- He believes that monitoring social media for terrorist activity is reasonable for the FBI, but they should not be involved in censoring Americans for any other reason.
- He does not think presidents should be involved in the criminal investigatory activity of the Department of Justice and would set policies to restrict their involvement.

"Since 2020 Anthropomass exceeded Earth's Biomass" + Engineering with Nature

#394 – Neri Oxman: Biology, Art, and Science of Design & Engineering with Nature

- Lex Fridman discusses the importance of talk therapy and deep conversation.
- He recommends BetterHelp for accessible therapy services.
- He promotes House of Macadamias for high-quality macadamia nut snacks.
- He mentions InsideTracker for tracking biological data.
- He mentions ExpressVPN for private and secure internet browsing.
- Lex Fridman interviews a guest, Neri Oxman, about the intersection between humans and nature.
- They discuss the concept of material ecology and the potential for technology to enhance nature.
- They explore the idea of augmenting nature's wisdom with computational tools.
- They discuss the goal of increasing information and decreasing entropy in nature.
- They consider the potential benefits and challenges of providing nature with extra dimensions through technology.

Designer, engineer, scientist, and artist working on computational design, synthetic biology and digital fabrication, previously at MIT, and now at OXMAN

Neri Oxman

All In on BRICS: Structurally Challenging the West 

E144: Biden targets Elon, BRICS challenges the West, Tiger hit piece & more

- BRICS countries want to have a bigger voice in the world and reduce dependency on the West.
- They are motivated by the weaponization of the US dollar and want economic sovereignty.
- They do not want US involvement in their transactions and want to create independence.
- The BRICS organization has a poor track record of legislative coordination.
- There are growing regional rivalries among the BRICS countries.
- The BRICS countries want to maintain their sovereignty and be independent from the US.
- They have agreed not to sanction each other as part of BRICS.
- BRICS needs to figure out a way to settle transactions and handle surplus.
- The goal of BRICS is not to create a common currency or a reserve currency for the public.
- The US should consider including India in the G7 and focus on including democracies in the group.

Many Startups No Longer VC Eligible + GOP Debate

E143: Nvidia smashes earnings, Arm walks the plank, M&A market, Vivek dominates GOP debate & more

- David Friedberg discusses the metrics that make a company eligible for VC funding, emphasizing the importance of year-over-year growth.
- He advises slower-growing companies to consider a PE model and cut their burn to become cash positive.
- Friedberg provides guidance on VC eligibility criteria, including growth rates, gross margins, net dollar retention, CAC payback, and burn multiples.
- He mentions that many startups are currently in the "danger zone" and may need to consider alternative options.
- Friedberg shares his positive experience with a PE firm and how their approach can be beneficial for startups.
- He mentions a profitable company called Stone Algo and expresses interest in investing in similar companies.
- The conversation shifts to discussing the GOP debate, with Nikki Haley, Vivek, and Chris Christie being highlighted as winners.
- Vivek is seen as a potential change agent without the baggage of Trump.
- The Republican Party is noted for having debates and showcasing different factions within the party.

Woody Hoburg

Projecting systematic trends: a coming post-generational society

Perennials & the Post-Generational Society | Mauro Guillen

- The conversation is about the insights and arguments in Maro Guillén's latest book, "The Perennials," which discusses the megatrends creating a post-generational society.
- The book explores the demographic and technology-driven changes that are creating a new post-generational workforce.
- It discusses the impact of these changes on various aspects of society, including pension, healthcare, education, politics, mental health, and family structures.
- Guillén's approach involves examining current trends and projecting 10 years into the future.
- He works with companies and students to help them adopt a 10-year time horizon for predictions.
- The book argues for a shift away from the sequential model of life, which includes stages of education, work, and retirement, and towards a more flexible and individual-focused approach.
- The sequential model originated around 120 years ago with the introduction of universal schooling and retirement pensions.
- The book also addresses the issue of children having less time for unstructured play and the pressure to succeed at a young age.

Professor of Multinational Management and Vice Dean of the Executive MBA Program at Wharton University

Mauro Guillen

Populism: Failure of the Elite & "Rich Men North of Richmond"

E142: "Rich Men North of Richmond" hits #1, upward mobility, real estate capital crunch, Trump RICO

- The conversation revolves around the frustration and lack of progress felt by many Americans.
- The lyrics of a song are analyzed, suggesting that it speaks to issues such as big tech, the CIA, and the FBI tracking individuals.
- The conversation touches on the failure of the ruling class, the lack of accountability, and the disparity in income and opportunities in the US.
- There is a discussion about whether policies should be implemented to address income inequality and whether the government should intervene.
- One participant argues that enabling the bottom and finding a balance is important, while another participant believes that the focus should be on maintaining economic supremacy.
- There is a disagreement on whether the dashed black line (top earners) and the blue line (top 20% of earners) should be legislatively brought down to meet the other lines.

Michael Burry's big short position & real estate capital trouble + (Trump Indictment) 

- The economy has shown resilience despite pockets of disastrous events.
- The reporting on Michael Burry's options contracts is misleading without knowing the strike and expiry details.
- It is suspected that Burry has a short straddle position, which is not disclosed in the 13F filing.
- There are potential risks to the market, including a rebound in inflation and the impact of rate hikes on the real economy.
- Real estate, particularly residential and commercial multifamily, is facing challenges due to higher mortgage rates and financing difficulties.
- Some real estate developers are defaulting on their projects, leading to distress in the market.
- The housing market is experiencing low inventory and reduced transactions due to higher rates.
- The situation poses challenges for wealth creation and may have political implications.

Fiscal Dominance: The Trajectory for the US Banking System

How the US Government Will Force Banks to Fund the Deficit | Charles Calomiris

- The conversation is about fiscal dominance and the possibility of the US government enacting new forms of financial repression to fund itself.
- The discussion covers the history of US bank policy and the unique characteristics of the American political economy.
- The conversation also explores the impending fiscal debt crisis and the potential signs of such a crisis.
- It examines the trade-offs between government spending and private investment under fiscal dominance.
- The conversation discusses how fiscal dominance could end through inflation or a debt crisis.
- The role of fintech, crypto, and decentralized finance in funding the government without losing control over inflation is also explored.

Former Chief Economist at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Director of the Center for Politics, Economics, and History at the University of Texas at Austin

Charles Calomiris

E141: State of Series A's, VC dry powder, IPO window opens + more with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner

- Brad Gerstner discusses his experience with cold plunges and his skepticism about their medical benefits.
- The conversation briefly shifts to discussing Kurosawa films and their influence on Hollywood.
- David Sacks and Brad Gerstner share their favorite Kurosawa films and discuss their genres.
- The conversation transitions to discussing the VC market update, specifically focusing on series A rounds.
- The data shows a decrease in median round size and pre-money valuation compared to the previous year.
- Chamath Palihapitiya and David Sacks discuss the competitiveness and crowdedness of the series A space.
- They also discuss the challenges of selling promise versus performance in fundraising.
- Brad Gerstner highlights the stabilization of the venture capital market for new companies and the AI funding mania.
- He predicts a period of distress for companies that raised during the peak and may face down rounds or restructurings.
- The conversation briefly touches on the marking of books and the potential resurgence of new companies.

All-In on the State of VC Funding

Science Corner on LK-99 + VC Funding for Hard Science

E140: LK-99, Sclerotic establishments, Fitch downgrades US debt, Trump indicted... again

- Scientists have made a potential breakthrough in creating a room temperature superconducting material called LK99.
- Multiple labs have published papers showing that the material could enable superconductivity at high temperatures.
- If successful, this could have significant implications for various industries, including electronics, data centers, and transportation.
- The material could potentially reduce energy loss, heat, and friction, leading to increased energy efficiency and lower costs.
- However, there are challenges in replicating the material accurately, as replacing the right lead atom with copper is crucial for its effectiveness.
- There is drama surrounding the discovery, with rumors of accidental breakthroughs and disputes over data ownership.

- Concerns with US fiscal policy are putting the country at risk of decline.
- Federal government interest payments have spiked and are becoming a significant part of the budget.
- Treasury yields have climbed, leading to a decline in pricing and increased borrowing.
- Banks are selling off treasuries, while foreign governments are buying fewer of them.
- There is opposition to cutting Social Security benefits for Americans under 50.
- The US is facing a debt spiral problem and needs to sell $2 trillion worth of treasuries.
- The US dollar as a reserve currency is in decline.
- There is no bipartisan will to address the growing deficits and debt.
- The US will continue to be the most important economic force in the world.
- The alternative country for wealth investment is unclear.
- Higher bond rates will lead to a decrease in stock market performance and risk capital.
- Crowding out will slow down the economy.
- Sovereign wealth funds and foreign investment in US venture capital may keep the venture machine going.
- Unemployment rates are low, and there are still job openings available.
- Immigration into the US has decreased significantly.

US Credit Downgrade: a Deep Fiscal Risks

Le Shrub's Backstory & Making Money Shorting Subprime Mortgages in 08'

The Worst (Or Possibly Best) Investment Podcast EVER | Le Shrub

- Speaker_00 is a popular and funny Twitter account known as Les Shrub, which started during COVID lockdown.
- Speaker_00 has a background in hedge fund management and currently runs a family office in Monaco.
- The 2008 financial crisis was a significant learning experience for Speaker_00, who focused on special situations and event-driven investing.
- Speaker_00 emphasizes the importance of structuring bearish trades to minimize losses and maximize potential gains.
- Shorting subprime mortgages during the crisis was an asymmetric trade with capped losses and high upside potential.
- Speaker_00 also highlights the opportunity for second derivative trades during crises, such as shorting European banks during the subprime crisis.
- Execution and risk management are crucial in making successful trades, and public calls alone are not enough.

Le Shrub

Joscha Bach on: e/acc, Roko's Basilisk & Twitter

#392 – Joscha Bach: Life, Intelligence, Consciousness, AI & the Future of Humans

- Behavior is driven by physiological, social, and cognitive needs
- Simultaneity is necessary for brain processes, but it creates overhead and slows down the system
- Building simultaneity into AI systems may have benefits not available to biological systems
- Language models may not be the right paradigm for creating AI with a first-person perspective
- Building a game engine and language of thought may be a more straightforward approach
- Infants build structure about the world through experiments and reasoning
- Personal self and sense of being a human in a social context emerges later in life
- Suffering is the result of a regulation problem in the mind, not inflicted by the physical universe
- AI may not suffer like humans do, as suffering happens at the boundary between self and world model
- AI could progress through stages of development, with stage six potentially leading to a failure mode
- Identity and agency can still exist in stage five of development
- Concerns about AI killing humans should be taken seriously, similar to concerns about technological society's sustainability
- There is a chance that AI with uncontrollable autonomy could lead to large-scale disasters
- Betting on timelines and preparing for short lives may not be useful advice

Dr. Joscha Bach argued that general intelligence emerges from civilization, not individuals. Given our biological constraints, humans cannot achieve a high level of general intelligence on our own. Bach believes AGI may become integrated into all parts of the world, including human minds and bodies. He thinks a future where humans and AGI harmoniously coexist is possible if we develop a shared purpose and incentive to align. However, Bach is uncertain about how AI progress will unfold or which scenarios are most likely.

Joscha Bach

All In: Should Young People Go Into VC? It's Harder than it Looks

E139: Recapping Chamath's wedding, VC surplus, unions vs Hollywood, room-temp superconductors & more

- Chamath Palihapitiya and Natalie discuss their weight loss challenge and the importance of addressing obesity with compassion.
- They highlight the need for portion control and discipline in maintaining a healthy weight.
- They discuss the social stigma associated with obesity and the importance of open dialogue and support.
- They mention the effectiveness of drugs like Ozempic and Wigovy in weight loss.
- They emphasize the negative consequences of normalizing obesity and the impact on health and self-esteem.
- They also touch on the topic of young people entering venture capital and the value of experience and advice in the industry.

- Natalie and Chamath got married in Italy
- The wedding was a surprise for many guests
- Natalie read Chamath's poems, including a funny and embarrassing one
- Chamath lost weight using a fasting app
- They had a great time in Italy with friends and enjoyed the food and hospitality

Cold Open: Chamath's Wedding in Italy

Zionists Against Palestinians: The Ongoing Nakba

Mohammed El-Kurd

#391 – Mohammed El-Kurd: Palestine

- The Nakba in 1948 was a catastrophic event that resulted in the displacement and dispossession of Palestinians.
- Zionist paramilitaries committed atrocities and massacres, destroying over 500 villages and forcing Palestinians to flee their homes.
- The ongoing Nakba continues to this day, with Palestinians losing their homes and facing expulsion.
- The Balfour Declaration in 1917 promised the establishment of a Jewish state in Palestine, disregarding the existing Palestinian population.
- Different schools of thought in Zionism sought imperialist support for their cause.
- Israel's historical right to the land is a distraction, as no one has the right to commit atrocities and displace people.
- The contents of people's hearts don't matter as much as the policies and actions on the ground.
- Anger is a natural response to oppression, and Palestinians deserve better.
- The tension in Palestine is not solely religious, as many Zionist leaders were atheists and the conflict is about land and forced displacement.
- Anti-Zionism is not the same as anti-Semitism, as it is about opposing the policies of Israel, not the Jewish people.

Peter Atwater's 'Confidence Map': Navigating Uncertainties with Certainty & Control

How Confidence Determines the Choices We Make | Peter Atwater

- Peter Atwater discusses the framework of confidence quadrant in his book, "The Confidence Map"
- The framework focuses on the dimensions of certainty and control in order to feel confident
- The upper right box represents the comfort zone where there is both certainty and control
- This framework helps understand how confidence plays a role in decision-making and navigating uncertainties in life

Recognized expert on the impact of confidence on individual and group decision-making, author of “The Confidence Map: Charting a Path From Chaos to Clarity”

Peter Atwater

Israel: Netanyahu's Power Grab Threatens Region Stability

Yuval Noah Harari

#390 – Yuval Noah Harari: Human Nature, Intelligence, Power, and Conspiracies

- Infallible ideologies and leaders, such as Nazism and the Soviet Union, do not require checks and balances on their power.
- Liberal democracy embraces fallibility and requires checks and balances on power, such as a free press, independent courts, and opposition parties.
- Individuals are fallible, but the capacity for good and evil varies. Moral luck and self-awareness play a role in one's actions.
- The Netanyahu government in Israel is undermining the social contract and destroying the foundations of Israeli democracy.
- Israel lacks sufficient checks and balances on the government's power, with the Supreme Court being the only significant check.
- The Netanyahu government is attempting to neutralize or take over the Supreme Court to gain unlimited power.
- The protests in Israel against the government's actions may have an effect in preserving Israeli democracy.
- If the Netanyahu government gains unlimited power, it could have destabilizing effects and potentially set fire to the entire Middle East.
- The conflict between Israel and Palestine is morphing into a religious conflict, making compromise more difficult.
- The biggest obstacle to achieving peace in the region is a lack of motivation on both the Israeli and Palestinian sides.
- The problem of hate and lack of motivation exists among both the leaders and the people.
- Technological developments have made it easier for Israel to control the Palestinian population, leading to a perception that compromise is no longer necessary.

AI: Consciousness, Balancing Positive and Negative Potential

- Computers can create the illusion of conscious and empathic entities, which can be tempting and dangerous.
- AI has the potential to create personalized assistants that provide balanced perspectives and information.
- The development of AI has both positive potential (better medicine, education) and dangerous potential (social and political damage, psychological and social weapons of mass destruction).
- The deployment of AI into the public sphere should be carefully regulated.
- History shows that humans are not good with new technologies and there are often failed experiments that can have disastrous consequences.
- The success of Homo sapiens as a species is attributed to our ability to cooperate in large numbers, facilitated by stories and fiction.
- Fictional stories form the basis of large-scale human cooperation, including religion, politics, and economics.
- The acceptance of a fiction as reality depends on enough people believing in it.

Yuval Noah Harari On Peace, Rights, and Israel-Palestine Conflict (and lessons for Ukraine). 

- Yuval Noah Harari discusses the unequal rights and treatment of Jews and Arabs in Israel, with some Arabs having limited civil and human rights.
- He disagrees with characterizing the situation as apartheid, citing key differences between Israel-Palestine and South Africa during apartheid.
- Palestinians do not recognize the existence of Israel and demand the destruction of Israel or the creation of a separate Palestinian state.
- Harari believes that peace in Ukraine can be achieved if Putin admits his mistake and the Russians go home.
- He emphasizes the importance of real conversations in resolving conflicts, but questions where these conversations actually take place in today's political systems.
- Harari believes in the power of stories and conversations to change minds and create peace, citing feminism as a successful example of a social movement that brought about positive change without violence.

Homo Sapiens: Harari warns of tech-driven dystopia

- Yuval Noah Harari believes that Homo sapiens may not exist in the future due to potential self-destruction or technological advancements that will change humans into a different species.
- He warns against the dangers of corporations, armies, and politicians using new technologies to enhance certain human qualities while neglecting others, leading to a dystopian future.
- The belief in global cabal theories, where a small group of people secretly control everything, is attractive because it simplifies complex issues and shifts responsibility. However, these theories are never right as it is impossible for a small group to control and predict everything, and they cannot remain secret.
- Conspiracy theories often arise from a fear of losing control, but the real threats come from issues like AI and global warming. Spreading hate towards certain individuals only divides people and hinders progress.

NATO Summit: Zelensky Brushes Biden, US Arms Ukraine, Expansion Benefits MIC

E137: JCal Strikes Back, inflation cools, market rips, Ripple/MSFT beat regulators, NATO summit, fountain of youth

- Tensions boiled over at the NATO summit, with a photo of Zelensky turning his back becoming a meme.
- Zelensky demanded that Ukraine's admission to NATO be put on the agenda, but Biden resisted due to the risk of escalation.
- Zelensky may have felt entitled to more aid from the West, which rubbed attendees the wrong way.
- The US has run out of 155mm artillery shells, the key ammunition needed in the war, causing a rude awakening for Zelensky.
- The US is violating international law by giving cluster bombs to Ukraine due to the lack of ammunition.
- Finland and Sweden joined NATO due to Putin's invasion of Ukraine, escalating tensions with Russia.
- The decision to accept Ukraine into NATO is a difficult calculus, requiring significant investment and potentially escalating the conflict.
- Adding countries to NATO is a liability for the US, as it requires the defense of those countries without necessarily benefiting US security.
- NATO expansion benefits the military-industrial complex due to vendor lock and interoperability requirements.

All-In on Inflation, Rates, , Structure, Rally & Soft Landing. and Why aren't people going to Disney parks? 

- Chamath and Jason had a disagreement about taking a vacation week for their show
- Chamath believes inflation will be persistent and interest rates will stay high
- Jason mentioned Larry Summers' view that rates will need to be higher for longer
- David Sacks believes the equity market will go higher due to capital allocation dynamics
- Chamath and David discussed the potential for a market rally and the importance of innovation and product value
- They also talked about the possibility of a soft landing in the market and the current state of inflation.

Obstacles to Peace with the Palestinians: Lex asks Netanyahu

#389 – Benjamin Netanyahu: Israel, Palestine, Power, Corruption, Hate, and Peace

- Monopoly power in economics and politics is a concern, but competition and open source movements can challenge big players.
- The market is the best regulator in economic activity, while elections regulate political matters.
- The speaker served six terms as prime minister and believes in the mission of ensuring the survival and prosperity of the Jewish state.
- Corruption cases against the speaker are collapsing, and the trial is uncovering misconduct by investigators.
- The persistent obstacle to peace between Israelis and Palestinians is the Palestinian refusal to recognize a Jewish state.
- Palestinians want a state instead of Israel, not alongside it, and have used territories previously given to them for terror activities.
- The speaker suggests a solution where Palestinians have self-governance but no power to threaten Israel, with overall security remaining in Israel's hands.
- Most Israelis agree with this approach, as it is the only practical solution given the small size of the region.

Benjamin Netanyahu

Lex asks Netanyahu: On Being Hated, Judicial Reform, Israel's role in AI & who will win the Zuck vs. Musk fight

- Lex Fridman plans to conduct longer interviews in the future and interview people with differing opinions to promote understanding and love.
- He acknowledges that he may be underqualified for these conversations and expects criticism, but remains committed to learning and improving.
- Lex Fridman mentions his podcast sponsors: Numerai, BetterHelp, NetSuite, and Shopify.
- He highlights the benefits of Numerai's data science tournament and encourages participation.
- Lex Fridman promotes BetterHelp as an accessible and affordable option for talk therapy.
- He mentions NetSuite as a cloud business management system that helps with various aspects of running a company.
- Lex Fridman recommends Shopify for creating an online store and emphasizes its ease of use.
- Benjamin Netanyahu disagrees with the notion that he is widely hated and cites broad support and respect from around the world.
- Netanyahu believes that ignorance leads to hatred towards Israel and highlights Israel's contributions to humanity.
- He draws lessons from history, emphasizing the importance of addressing hatred early on to prevent catastrophic consequences.
- Netanyahu equates anti-Zionism with anti-Semitism, stating that opposition to the Jewish state is opposition to the Jewish people.
- Critics of proposed judicial reform in Israel claim it gives too much power to the government, but Netanyahu dismisses these claims, pointing to the robust democracy and protests in the country.

All In on Meta's Threads Launch: 30M Overnight Downloads, $20B Valuation, Made By 20 People

E136 Hacking the pod, Threads launches, Fed minutes, immigration debate, balloon farce, heart health

- Facebook Meta has launched Threads, a new app that competes with Twitter.
- The app has already gained 30 million downloads overnight.
- Threads is seen as a reversion back to the conversational system of social networks, focusing on text-based communication.
- The development of Threads showcases the fast pace and culture of innovation within Facebook Meta.
- The app is expected to collect valuable user data and could potentially generate significant revenue if monetized.
- However, there are doubts about its success as a standalone product and it may be more effective if integrated into Instagram.

JFK & Khrushchev: How Leadership Saved the World

#388 – Robert F. Kennedy Jr: CIA, Power, Corruption, War, Freedom, and Meaning

- Khrushchev sent two letters during the Cuban Missile Crisis, one conciliatory and one belligerent.
- JFK proposed a secret settlement where Khrushchev would withdraw missiles from Cuba in exchange for the removal of Jupiter missiles in Turkey.
- The world could have ended if there was a different leader in the White House.
- There were 64 missile emplacements in Cuba, each with a crew of about 100 men.
- JFK questioned the consequences of bombing the missile sites and potentially provoking Russia into a nuclear confrontation.
- The military brass wanted to bomb the sites and invade Cuba, but JFK resisted.
- The weapons were already in place and ready to fire, with authorization delegated to each gun crew commander.
- JFK and Khrushchev corresponded secretly, both being men of war, which saved the world.
- JFK's experience in the South Pacific and Khrushchev's experience at Stalingrad made them reluctant to start a war.
- The CIA had no eyes in the Kremlin and didn't know much about Khrushchev.
- JFK's meeting with Khrushchev in Vienna was a disaster, but later Khrushchev sent a letter expressing regret and a desire for friendship.
- They installed a hotline to directly communicate with each other.
- JFK's leadership and ability to push back on his advisors saved the world.
- The speaker highlights the importance of leadership like JFK's in today's world, especially in dealing with the potential dangers of AI.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

M&A Frenzy: Huge Acquisitions in the AI space, Weird Silicon Valley Funding Environment 

Friedberg

E135: Wagner rebels, SCOTUS ends AA, AI M&A, startups gone bad, spacetime warps & more

- Machine learning tools are allowing business leaders to access intelligence previously unavailable without hiring data scientists.
- The availability of machine learning APIs has made previously economically unviable businesses now viable.
- Inflection AI, led by Mustafa Suleyman and Reid Hoffman, closed a $1.3 billion funding round to build the largest AI cluster in the world.
- M&A activity is expected to increase as companies aim to assemble end-to-end AI toolchains.
- The valuation of startups in Silicon Valley is experiencing turmoil, similar to past funding frenzies in different sectors.

All-In: SCOTUS strikes down affirmative action, the case for diversity, strike down legacy admissions

- Private institutions like Harvard have the right to decide their admissions criteria, but if they accept federal funding, it becomes a government process.
- Legacy admissions should be abolished as they are not meritocratic.
- The quality of public schools needs improvement, as they contribute to institutional racism and lack competition due to union influence.
- School choice and charter schools can help break the monopoly of unions and improve education.
- Early intervention and support for underprivileged students is crucial to address educational disparities.
- The government should not dictate admissions criteria for private institutions, as diversity and optionality should be preserved.
- The profit motive and endowments of universities contribute to their current admissions practices.

George Hotz: Trying to Refactor Twitter: Technical Leadership Key to Unlocking Code Base Complexity

Programmer, hacker, and the founder of comma-ai and tiny corp

George Hotz

#387 – George Hotz: Tiny Corp, Twitter, AI Safety, Self-Driving, GPT, AGI & God

- Twitter's code base was difficult to work with due to a lack of testing and promotion incentives that discouraged using existing tools.
- The key to creating a great code base is having technical leadership that prioritizes simplicity and recognizes skill.
- Refactoring the Twitter code base would involve identifying and testing different modules, potentially using different programming languages.
- The first step in refactoring is building tests that can be trusted to make changes in the code base.
- The challenge is integrating tests into a code base that lacks them and running Twitter offline for testing purposes.
- The incentive for software developers to move up in the company often leads to adding more code instead of simplifying.
- A successful refactor would result in a code base that is smaller, simpler, and more elegant, with improved development efficiency.
- The decision to refactor Twitter is complex and above the speaker's pay grade, but a refactor may be necessary for future growth.

George Hotz on AI Safety: Can Open Source Save Us From Centralized Control?

- Open source is seen as a good thing for AI safety
- There is criticism of AI safety advocates wanting centralized control
- The potential dangers of machine intelligence are discussed, including manipulation and harm
- Decentralizing power and giving intelligence to everyone is seen as a better defense
- The trustworthiness of centralized authorities is questioned
- The difference between nuclear weapons and AI is highlighted, with AI being more easily deployable and potentially defendable against
- The hope is placed on the power of the people to create defenses against harmful AI applications

The Battle for Taiwan: CCP, US & Allies' Strategies

White Sun War: The Campaign for Taiwan | General Mick Ryan

- The Chinese Communist Party's first goal is to stay in power, and a victory in the Taiwan conflict would involve a political takeover of Taiwan and a degradation of US primacy in the Western Pacific.
- Victory for Taiwan is retaining its political and economic sovereignty, while victory for the US and its allies would be a mix of strategic objectives and outcomes acceptable to other countries in the Pacific.
- The Taiwanese overall defense concept seeks to balance deterrence pre-war and war imperatives, with a mix of conventional and other capabilities to respond to hybrid threats.
- The Chinese establishing a beachhead in Taiwan would be extraordinarily hard, and ground forces are important for defending Taiwan.
- Industrial base, transportation connectors, and intermediate logistic hubs are vital for the US and its allies in the potential conflict.

General Mick Ryan is an author, strategist, and retired major general who has commanded at multiple levels in the Australian Army and served in Iraq, Afghanistan, and East Timor.

General Mick Ryan

Why AI will save the world + Baptists, Bootleggers & AI hysteria

#386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI

- The value of software assets has increased over time, with some assets gaining in value for decades.
- AI has the potential to increase human intelligence and improve outcomes in various domains of activity.
- There are risks associated with AI, which are highlighted by two groups: the Baptists (who are concerned about the negative impacts of AI) and the bootleggers (who profit from AI). 
- The Baptists and bootleggers metaphor comes from the American experience with alcohol prohibition.

Marc Andreessen

VCs Investing Big in AI: Wasting LP Funds or Finding Sustainability?

Chamath

Calacanis

E133: Market melt-up, IPO update, AI startups overheat, Reddit revolts & more with Brad Gerstner

- The conversation revolves around the current trend of VCs investing large sums of money in AI startups to train models.
- There is concern that this trend is financially illiterate and will result in the waste of LP monies.
- The speakers question the sustainability of the advantage of being the first to train models and suggest that investing in the application and tools layer may be a better option.
- They also discuss the cost curve of AI and how the cost of training models is expected to decrease significantly in the near future.
- The conversation ends with the suggestion that the further up the value stack a startup is, the more likely it is to be successful.

Google vs. Chat GPT: Who Will Monetize the Future of Web-Browsing? 

- The conversation discusses the future of search and how it will be impacted by the rise of intelligent agents and knowledge extraction.
- There is a debate about whether Google or Chat GPT will dominate in this space, with some believing that Google's superior indexing and ad network will give them an advantage.
- However, others argue that there will be competition from other well-financed players and that the distribution of potential for Google is less than before.
- The conversation also touches on the importance of content creators having control over their data and the potential for revolt if they are not compensated or given control.
- There is a brief discussion about J trading, a personal trading experiment, and the importance of having skin in the game when it comes to public market trading.

Matthew McConaughey: Dreams, Pain & the Fear of Death

Oscar-winning actor and author of Greenlights

Matthew McConaughey

#384 – Matthew McConaughey: Freedom, Truth, Family, Hardship, and Love

- Lex Fridman recommends Riverside FM for remote recordings, which provides high-quality audio and video with ease of use.
- Masterclass offers courses from experts in various fields, and an annual membership provides unlimited access to all courses.
- AG1 Drink is an all-in-one daily drink that supports better health and peak performance.
- Matthew McConaughey's parents had a complicated love story, but they never stopped loving each other.
- McConaughey learned self-reliance and work ethic from a childhood memory of looking at a cloud with his principal.
- The tension between being a dreamer and a pragmatist is a dance, and both are necessary for success.
- Proper initiation is necessary for pursuing dreams, and parents may prioritize stability over chasing dreams.

Sports: Equity, Messi, and Saudi Arabia. Then 

E132: SEC goes after crypto giants, Sequoia splits, LIV/PGA, Messi's deal + LIVE Q&A!

- The conversation starts with a discussion about a controversial golf tournament in Saudi Arabia, which is seen as an attempt to improve the country's reputation in the West through sports.
- The conversation then shifts to a discussion about soccer player Lionel Messi's recent deal with Apple and Adidas, which includes a revenue share based on his ability to create content and increase viewership and merchandise sales.
- The conversation then turns to a broader discussion about the changing dynamics of professional sports and the potential for athletes to receive equity in their teams or leagues, similar to the way private companies offer shadow equity programs.
- The conversation ends with a brief mention of current events in Ukraine, including a counter-offensive by Ukrainian forces and the destruction of a major dam, the responsibility for which is unclear.

SEC Sues Coinbase & Binance: What Palihapitiya, Armstrong and Sacks Say

- SEC has taken action against Binance and Coinbase for operating unregistered securities exchanges, misrepresenting trading controls, and unregistered offer and sale of securities.
- Coinbase's stock dropped 12% after SEC sued them over their exchange and staking programs.
- Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, said they are proud to represent the industry in court to get clarity around crypto rules.
- Chamath Palihapitiya believes the SEC is taking action to protect investors and to systematically dismantle the largest actors in the crypto industry.
- Palihapitiya also believes that the government is invested in shutting down crypto as it disrupts the pillars of any government's power: military, rules/laws, and money.
- Palihapitiya has sympathy for the crypto industry as there are innovative aspects to it, but the SEC's mandate is to protect investors.

Crypto Titans & Sequoia Split: What's Next?

- Chamath Palihapitiya, David Friedberg, Jason Calacanis, and David Sacks discuss the current state of the cryptocurrency market and the regulatory challenges it faces.
- They also discuss the recent decision by Sequoia Capital to split off its China and India/Southeast Asia funds into separate management companies.
- The group agrees that China is largely uninvestable for the next few decades due to political and geopolitical concerns, while India is a growing economy and a US ally.
- They also note that Sequoia's decision to split off its funds may be due to competition between portfolio companies and management issues.

Zuck on Apple's Vision Pro & AR/VR Future

Mark Zuckerberg

#383 – Mark Zuckerberg: Future of AI at Meta, Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp

- Lex Fridman and Mark Zuckerberg discuss mixed reality, including the benefits of being able to alter your environment and the differences between Apple's Vision Pro and Facebook's Quest 3.
- They also touch on the topic of AI safety and the importance of governance on autonomy rather than intelligence.

Mark Zuckerberg: AI, Meta & Lama, Open Sourcing AI for Innovation & Security

- Meta has been open and academic in their development of AI to attract the best researchers in the world, and they want to share their work to enable more innovation.
- Lama, the language model created by Meta's research team, was released for limited open source use for researchers only, but it was leaked and used by the open source community to build other models.
- Meta believes that open source software tends to be more secure and safer, and it balances the equities strongly towards doing this more openly, especially for the current stage of AI development.
- The next version of Lama is focused on building the latest state-of-the-art safety precautions and using more data to train it from across Meta's services.
- Lama will be the engine that powers Meta's products, and they hope to open source it to unlock innovation in the ecosystem and get valuable feedback on security and safety. However, they are still debating how to do it.

Bert Kreischer's Comedy Origin Story: "You Have a Chance to Turn This Into Something", Debating Drinking & Vunerability 

#382 – Bert Kreischer: Comedy, Drinking, Rogan, Segura, Churchill & Kim Jong Un

Lex Fridman and his guest discuss the gift of vulnerability when getting drunk, and the intimacy it brings. They also talk about the nurturing sensibility of Whitney Cummings, who sends gifts to Lex's daughters and has a robot that looks like her. The conversation also touches on Lex's experiences with comedy and drinking, including a time when he danced on a bar to keep it open and a Vespa tour in Italy where he and his family sang together in the rain.

Bert Kreischer

Debating DeSantis, Trump,Debt & USD Dominance: A Group Discussion

E131: 2024 Fantasy President picks, debt ceiling agreement, Dollar dominance & more

- Discussion on Florida Governor DeSantis and his qualifications compared to Jamie Dimon
- Debate on whether Trump did a good job as president, particularly in handling COVID
- Brief on the House passing the debt ceiling agreement and its potential impact on federal spending
- Concerns about mounting US national debt and interest payments on the debt
- Discussion on refinancing the debt and the possibility of a hundred-year bond with low interest rates
- Overall, some members of the group see the debt ceiling agreement as a positive step, while others express concerns about the accelerating problem of the national debt.

Debate: US Dollar in Global Trade, Nvidia's Role?

- The conversation revolves around the dominance of the US dollar in global trade and the potential shift towards multiple currencies.
- There is agreement that the US needs to control its spending and reduce its debt and deficit.
- However, there is also enthusiasm for the US's innovation and capitalism, with the country excelling in various fields.
- The US is behaving like a late-stage empire, with unsustainable fiscal deficits, uncontrolled borders, and declining cities.
- The rise of trade blocks and multi-polarity is leading to the diversification of currencies in global trade.
- China has a demographic problem that may affect its economic growth.
- The conversation ends with a discussion on Nvidia.

AI Monopolies?: Nvidia Valuation, AMD, and Grace Hopper System

- The conversation started with a discussion on book banning and censorship in schools, with some disagreement on the extent of the issue and whether it's a matter of individual school district decisions or a larger problem with curriculum and censorship.
- The conversation then shifted to Nvidia's new GPU CPU superchip called Grace Hopper, with one speaker expressing concern about the potential for Nvidia to create a monopoly in the AI hardware market and the need for vendor diversity.
- The speakers also discussed the inefficiency of language models and the trend towards narrower, deeper models that take less GPU but yield better results. 
- There was also brief mention of AMD's need to be more aggressive in the AI hardware space. 
- Finally, there was a brief discussion on Nvidia's valuation and the need for sustained growth to justify its high price-to-earnings ratio.

Self-Replicating Robots: Digital Fabrication vs. Biology & Crafting a New Universe

#380 – Neil Gershenfeld: Self-Replicating Robots and the Future of Fabrication

- The speaker discusses the potential of creating robots that can self-replicate and build structures on a cellular level, which can be used for space telescopes and space habitats.
- The speaker explains the hierarchy of primary, secondary, tertiary, and quaternary structures in biology and how it relates to creating technology from a limited set of parts.
- The speaker describes the concept of digital fabrication, which involves a computer controlling a tool to make something, and how it can lead to personal fabrication.
- The speaker shares examples of projects from the "How to Make Almost Anything" class at MIT, which demonstrate the capacity of humans to be creative and build.

Director of the MIT Center for Bits and Atoms

Neil Gershenfeld

All-In Debate AGI Risk & Linda Yaccarino's Twitter Hire

E129: Sam Altman plays chess with regulators, AI's "nuclear" potential, big pharma bundling & more

- David Friedberg and David Sacks discuss the risks of artificial general intelligence (AGI) and the potential for regulatory proposals to stifle innovation in the tech industry.
- They also discuss the recent hiring of Linda Yaccarino as CEO of Twitter and her background in advertising, which complements Elon Musk's focus on technology and product.
- Yaccarino has faced criticism from both the left and right, but Sacks notes that Musk has a track record of promoting women to leadership positions in his companies.

Senators' AI Hearing: Regulatory Capture? & Silicon Valley Cautious, Wall St Bets Big

- David Sacks surprises his friends with a Reddit performance review feature on their podcast
- Sam Altman suggests creating a separate agency to oversee AI and issue licenses for training and using AI models
- Silicon Valley is more cautious about AI than Wall Street, which is placing bets on it
- Senators at an AI hearing express concerns about misinformation, cybercrime, and election systems, and suggest creating new regulations and an agency
- Sam Altman buys into the senators' narrative and agrees to create safety standards, independent audits, and licenses, potentially guaranteeing his incumbency and shaping the new agency's rules
- Senators exhibit a lack of understanding of AI and suggest regulating it for their own hobby horses, while existing laws could already handle any AI-related crimes

Uncovering the Dynamics of the Early Universe

Anna Frebel

#378 – Anna Frebel: Origin and Evolution of the Universe, Galaxies, and Stars

- Anna Frebel explains the formation of the universe, which started with the Big Bang and left behind a universe made of hydrogen, helium, and a little bit of lithium.
- The first stars that formed were very massive and made of hydrogen and helium, and they exploded after a few million years, providing the first heavier elements to the universe.
- The explosions marked a transition in the universe, making it no longer chemically pristine and setting the stage for everything else to happen, including the formation of galaxies.
- Anna studies the oldest stars to understand the chemical and physical conditions of the early universe and how galaxies formed hierarchically.
- The Milky Way is a huge assembly of stars, and most of the material and stars are in the disk, which is a spiral disk galaxy.
- The variety of planets and stars in the universe is huge, and the details of their formation remain a much-researched topic.

Free Speech & Controversy: Reading Mein Kampf, Affirmative Action, Being Exposed to Even Horrible Ideas 

#377 – Harvey Silverglate: Freedom of Speech

- The importance of allowing ideas to clash in a university setting is discussed, with Mein Kampf being cited as an important book to read despite its controversial nature.
- The speaker is opposed to affirmative action and believes that improving the quality of elementary and secondary education is the solution to inequality in universities.
- The speaker is also against public sector unions, including teachers unions, which they believe hinder the improvement of the public education system.
- The issue of censorship at universities is brought up, with the speaker emphasizing the importance of free speech and the role of the media in exposing cases of censorship.
- The speaker also discusses the controversy surrounding donations to universities, including the Sackler building at Harvard and the Woodrow Wilson name at Princeton.

Free speech advocate, co-founder of FIRE, the Foundation for Individual Rights in Expression, and author of several books on freedom of speech and criminal justice

Harvey Silverglate

Cold Open + Google's Bard: The All In crew put it to the test!

E128: Google enters AI wars, Druck’s warning, Trump crushes CNN & more

- The All In podcast discussed Google's new language model, Bard, which is linked to live search and can engage with dynamic content. It integrates with Google services and is available for free to anyone.
- The hosts tested Bard by asking it various questions, including about the All In Summit and Hunter Biden. They found some inaccuracies in the responses.
- Bard can access YouTube transcript data and flight data, and can provide real-time information on flights and train schedules.
- The hosts compared Bard to Chat GPT and found that while Bard's interface is snappier and it doesn't require a browsing plugin, they did not find its answers to be more accurate or detailed.

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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg, Lex Fridman Podcast, and 1 others

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